Crude oil falls to two-week low, US dollar posts fourth consecutive decline, metals show mixed performance, lithium carbonate rises over 3% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM June 24 news:

Metal market:

By the daytime close, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel falling together, down 0.51% and 0.44% respectively. Other metals recorded varying degrees of gains, with SHFE zinc leading the gains at 0.85%, while other metals showed relatively small fluctuations. Alumina main contract fell 0.14%, and cast aluminum main contract dropped 0.36%.

Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract surged rapidly after the afternoon opening, closing up 3.06%, silicon metal rose 1.08%, and polysilicon gained 0.48%. The European container shipping main contract fell 7%.

Ferrous metals series collectively declined, with HRC and rebar both dropping over 0.5%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.94% and coke dropped 2.03%.

Overseas market, as of 15:05, base metals mostly rose, with LME nickel, LME copper and LME lead all gaining over 0.4%, up 0.46%, 0.45% and 0.48% respectively. LME aluminum led the losses with a 0.62% decline.

Precious metals, as of 15:05, COMEX gold fell 1.67% and COMEX silver dropped 0.5%. Domestically, SHFE gold declined 1.26% while SHFE silver rose 0.09%.

Market conditions as of 15:05 today

》Click to view SMM market dashboard

Macro front

Domestic:

[PBOC: To study and formulate a new-phase fintech development plan, issue policy documents to deepen fintech application for financial digital and intelligent transformation] The National Data Bureau jointly issued the "Data Elements ×" Three-Year Action Plan (2024-2026) with 16 departments, aiming to strengthen scenario demand traction and promote compliant and efficient data circulation. The PBOC will next study and formulate a new-phase fintech development plan, issue policy documents to deepen fintech application for financial digital and intelligent transformation, and conduct "Data Elements ×" pilot projects with the National Data Bureau.

[Goldman Sachs: China's economic growth remains resilient, maintains overweight recommendation on Chinese stocks] Goldman Sachs maintains overweight recommendations for A-shares and H-shares, expecting the CSI 300 target at 4,600 points and MSCI China target at 84 points, implying about 10% upside room. It upgraded ratings for banking and property sectors and continues overweighting consumer-focused sectors including medical devices, consumer services, media, and e-commerce retail.

►June 24 interbank forex market RMB central parity rate was 7.1656 yuan per US dollar

US dollar:

As of around 15:05, the US dollar index fell 0.34% to 98.06, marking a four-day losing streak. US Fed officials have made dovish statements, with easing expectations supporting silver prices. Fed Chairman Powell will attend hearings in the US Senate and House of Representatives this week, and US PCE data will also be released this Friday.

Fed official Bowman stated that if inflation remains mild, it would support an interest rate cut in July. If inflation continues to decline or the labour market weakens, the US Fed may cut interest rates. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that so far, the impact of tariff increases on the economy has been relatively mild compared to expectations; if the impact of trade policies fades, interest rate cuts should continue. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro:

Today, data such as the US Q1 current account, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June, the Bank of Canada's core CPI monthly rate for May, the Bank of Canada's core CPI - Common annual rate for May, the Bank of Canada's core CPI annual rate - Unadjusted for May, the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for Australia for the week ending June 22, the Germany IFO Business Climate Index for June, and the UK CBI Industrial Orders Difference for June will be released.

In addition, Fed Governor Kugler and FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams, will host the "Fed Listens" event. Fed Chairman Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the semi-annual monetary policy report. Bank of England Governor Bailey will attend the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee meeting. NATO heads of state and government will hold a summit in The Hague from June 24 to 25, with Trump confirming his attendance.

Crude Oil:

As of 15:05, oil prices in both markets fell by more than 4%, with US crude oil dropping by 4.22% and Brent crude oil by 4.13%, reaching their lowest levels in two weeks. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have plummeted, easing concerns about supply disruptions.

Galaxy Futures analysis suggests that if geopolitical conflicts ease definitively, crude oil will return to being priced based on fundamentals. The near-term will trade on expectations for the Q3 peak season, while the long-term will trade on the contradiction of worsening supply surplus amid OPEC's continuous production increases. The Brent crude oil operating range for Q3 is expected to be between $60-72 per barrel. Short-term geopolitical conflicts may still have residual effects, and oil prices will maintain a fluctuating trend. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Review

►Aluminum prices continue to fall, with a clear mindset of refusing to budge on prices in Jiangxi region [Aluminum Scrap Daily Review]

►[SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] June 24: Nickel salt prices remain stable

►[SMM MHP Daily Review] June 24: Indonesian MHP prices slightly decline

►Limited increase in SiMn demand, spot prices struggle to rise [SMM Manganese Ore Daily Review]

►No bright spots in downstream demand, molybdenum market weakens and consolidates [SMM Molybdenum Daily Review]